After the successful completion of a 21 day lock-down period on 14 April 2020, our Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi addressed the nation in his usual style and candour and announced the extension of the lock-down by another 19 days i.e upto 03 May 2020. In the present fight against the “Wuhan Virus”, though the nation has responded well, but is still faced with certain challenges which have not been fully addressed. Therefore, a review of the situation is necessitated, to assess our shortcomings and identify measures to overcome these.
# There has been a shortage of medical equipment and supplies especially PPE.
# The Security and Safety of our medical warriors.
# The Sustenance of essential commodities to reach the masses.
# The Sustenance of daily wage workers and prevention of mass migration from their places of work to the hinterland.
# Protocols to be observed post 3 May 2020.
Let us analyse these aspects carefully and deduce how effective we have been thus far in our crusade of the “Corona War”. It seems the war is being fought without adequate medical equipment, medicines and inadequate reserves. We are reminded of a similar situation during the Kargil Conflict in 1999, wherein, The Indian Army was short of ammunition, high altitude equipment and clothing and we had to resort to emergent imports from other friendly nations at exorbitant costs. The lessons learnt by us were well analysed and enunciated in the “Kargil Review Commitee Report” tabled in the Parliament of India on 23 Feb 2000.
In the instant case the enemy is well entrenched and has paralysed the entire World. As far as India is concerned, we are fighting this enemy without weapons and ammunition, which would imply medical equipment and medicines. Therefore, the only strategy which could employed was to minimise the spread of this virus by resorting to ‘Lock-Down” and “Social-Distancing”, to enable us to gain enough lead time for the build up of medical supplies and reserves. In any war which has to be taken to its logical conclusion, the importance of “War Wastage Reserves” cannot be overemphasised. It is also a foregone conclusion that the vaccine is a minimum 12-18 months away.
There has also been a lot of discussion and debate about the survival of the Virus in extreme condition conditions of heat. Our climatic temperature is now ranging between 30 degrees Celsius to 40 degree Celsius. We can be hopeful that this is deterrence to the spread of this virus.
A look at the India Covid 19 Tracker gives us the following indications:-
- The cases have come down from a multiplication factor (rate of doubling) of 4 days to 6 days.
- The Southern states appear to be stabilising. The Northern states have yet to stabilise and cases are on the rise.
- Kerala and Himachal Pradesh are flattening. Let us hope this trend manifests itself in other states as well.
- Maharashtra especially Mumbai is most affected. Even in Mumbai which is the worst affected, there are 2687 positive cases out of 38471 samples. In percentage term this translates @ 7 %.
- India is testing @ 20000 persons daily. There has been a steady enhancement in the capacity for testing.
- The fatality rate is below 30%. In comparison to other tropical countries this is quite favourable.
The focus now would be on the containment zones/hotspots, wherein the Govt would have to exercise utmost vigil and ensure all efforts are undertaken to contain this spread. The safety and security of our medical warriors is directly related to the availability of PPE equipment/masks etc. With the passage of time one is optimistic that these shortages will get addressed. One of the other biggest challenges the Govt is facing today is the sustenance or sustained supply of essential commodities. It is imperative that the supply chain right from the farmers or the manufacturer, through the distributor and retailer reaches the customer especially the daily wage workers. The compensation plan announced by the Govt for the daily wage workers hasn’t had the desired effect so far, since recently an exodus of such workers was reported from Mumbai. This aspect needs finer tuning as the prolonged lock-down is bound to affect many.
As we move now towards the third phase of the “Carona War” i.e. the period post 3 May 2020, it becomes imperative to understand the kind of protocols which are required to be in place to ensure no more spread of infections due to this virus. Some essential aspects of the measures to be observed are given as follows:-
# A grid based approach with clear demarcation of hot spots. A flexible strategy dictated by ground realities.
# Overcoming deficiencies of medical supplies and creation of reserves.
# Designating of out of bound areas and strict measures for crowd control.
# Sanitisation of common areas on a regular basis.
# Partial resumption of inter-state travel by air, road and rail. Foreign travel to remain suspended.
# Strengthening the Public Distribution System with linkages from rural to urban areas for move of essential food grains and vegetable produce.
# Opening up of industrial centres and offices in a staggered manner.
It is imperative that adequate caution is exercised by all of us post the termination of the lock-down period. It is also a wonderful opportunity for the nation to strengthen its “Make in India” strategy, as post COVID 19, there will be a strong possibility of a lateral shift of “FDI’ from China to other countries. Japan has already initiated the process of moving its industries out of China. India being as the most lucrative destination must exploit this opportunity. The Govt of India needs to immediately formulate a task force to monitor the same.
Maj Gen Rajan Kochhar, VSM, retired from the Indian Army, as Major General Army Ordnance Corps, Central Command, after 37 years of meritorious service to the Nation. Alumni of Defence Services Staff College and College of Defence Management, he holds a doctorate in Emotional Intelligence and is a reputed expert on logistics and supply chain management. Gen Kochhar, a prolific writer and defence analyst, has authored four books and invited as an expert commentator by various news TV channels. He is an Arbitrator with the Ministry of Defence.
The unleashing of COVID 19 on humanity is possibly the event of the century. It has caused massive turbulence all over the world. Needless to say it has left a a deep impact on how businesses will get conducted post this period. The stock markets have taken a dive and are behaving in the most bullish manner. Every day there is a rise and fall, making a common investor puzzled. China has earned a bad name for itself and tarnished its credibility and reputation. Its manipulation of the WHO is an open secret now. Already Nations are inimical to China and raging with pain and anger and want to be avenged.
